China economic structural transformation

China is implementing a strategic economic transition focused on industrial upgrading and technological independence. Following a mid-year Politburo meeting, the government outlined priorities to expand domestic consumption, stabilize market expectations, and strengthen independent industrial chains. This agenda includes an “AI Plus” programme and the development of six new infrastructure networks, such as next-generation power grids and high-performance computing.

This policy direction has evolved into a broader structural shift aimed at moving the economy away from traditional drivers like real estate and low-cost manufacturing. Growth is increasingly fueled by technological innovation, digitalization, and green energy. Data from the first half of 2026 shows that high-tech and digital product manufacturing are contributing nearly 50% of industrial growth. Key emerging sectors include integrated circuits, aerospace, biomedicine, and the low-altitude economy.

Recent data indicates the economy is experiencing a “K-shaped” growth pattern. While GDP grew by 4.7% in the first half of 2026, there is a significant divergence between robust external demand and sluggish domestic consumption. Exports of technology-intensive products, such as integrated circuits, automobiles, and new energy vehicles (NEVs), have seen double-digit increases. China now accounts for over 70% of global production in batteries and key materials. Looking ahead, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is prioritizing 6G technology and smart connected vehicle standards for the upcoming “15th Five-Year Plan” period.

However, domestic consumption remains pressured by the collapse of the real estate bubble, which has impacted household wealth. While new drivers like AI and digital products are expanding, they have not yet fully offset the decline in traditional sectors regarding employment, tax revenue, and fiscal stability.