China energy commodity import trends

China has demonstrated fluctuating demand for energy commodities throughout 2026. In October, the country committed to importing at least 10 million tonnes of US coal annually for 2027 and 2028, following a White House announcement and the inclusion of coal in a reciprocal tariff-reduction framework. While US Gulf coal shipments to China recovered in the first nine months of 2026, total tonnage remained below 2024 levels. During the same period, China’s overall coal imports fell by 6% year-on-year in September due to high domestic inventories and supply restrictions from Indonesia.

By November, data indicated a significant decline in crude oil demand, with imports for the first ten months of 2026 falling 15% compared to the previous year. Regarding thermal coal, seaborne imports for 2026 were estimated at approximately 295 million tonnes, though actual arrivals as of late October suggested a lower pace of roughly 288.96 million tonnes. Meeting central targets for coal imports may depend on seasonal winter restocking and coastal buying.