El Niño impact on Brazil's crops

In mid‑July 2026, analysts warned that Brazil’s soy harvest for the 2026/27 season would see growth of less than 1 % despite a record‑large planted area. Tight profit margins, higher fertilizer costs and the expected El Niño‑related weather fluctuations during the critical growth months were cited as the main constraints, with average yields forecast at about 3,686 kg/ha. Authorities also issued household‑preparedness guidance, urging people to monitor forecasts and ready emergency kits against flooding and landslides.

A week later, projections for Brazil’s cotton crop indicated a 1.5 % decline to 3.828 million tonnes, driven by anticipated El Niño‑induced dry conditions that could cut productivity by up to 5.6 %. Export volumes were expected to fall by 7.6 %. Despite the downturn, agritech field trials of a nematode‑management solution in Mato Grosso reported higher fibre yields and improved economic returns in key cotton regions, with profits reaching up to R$1.8 thousand per hectare.

Together, the snapshots show how the El Niño phenomenon is shaping expectations for Brazil’s major row‑crop outputs, prompting both cautionary forecasts and experimental mitigation efforts.