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El Niño impact on global food and rice markets

Updated 4 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

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2026-09-10 14:39 UTC → 2026-10-04 01:04 UTC · added removed

The emergence of a strong El Niño phenomenon continues to drive global food security concerns and price volatility. Asian rice export prices have reached one-year highs due to El Niño-induced heatwaves, shifting supply dynamics, and weather-related milling constraints that affect grain recovery rates. constraints. In Thailand, the FOB price prices for 5% broken white rice reached $475 per ton on September 3, a two-month high and a $9 increase from the previous week. This rise is attributed to driven by water scarcity as the rainy season ends and increased production costs. While demand from Iraq has declined, strong demand from the Philippines and Malaysia continues to support high price levels. Analysts suggest prices may stabilize if export purchasing slows, though short-term delivery needs currently maintain high levels. In Vietnam, 5% broken rice is trading between 438 and 442 USD per ton. Producers producers in the Mekong Delta remain concerned that low water levels in the Mekong River will reduce silt deposits, impacting deposits and impact future yields. In India, India has also seen export prices for 5% broken rice have risen to between 366 and 371 USD per ton, rise as traders warn of the “weakest monsoon in 20 years.” To manage domestic stability, New data from Indonesia highlights the government intensifying impact of Bangladesh is considering tightening export controls or banning fragrant rice exports to mitigate rising costs. On the broader commodity market, wheat prices on phenomenon. According to the Chicago Board Central Bureau of Trade Statistics (BPS), drought conditions have hit a three-year high, exacerbated by escalating tensions in significantly reduced rice planting areas. In August 2026, the Black Sea region. Research proportion of rice standing crops was only 28.07%, down from OCBC Group indicates that 29.79% during the 2023 El Niño poses heightened food inflation risks across ASEAN nations, specifically threatening period. Consequently, rice production in August 2026 fell to 3.15 million tons, a 2.90% decrease from the Philippines, Indonesia, previous year. Economists expect the phenomenon to persist into early next year, potentially delaying planting seasons and Thailand. Because many regional economies are net food importers, there is an increased risk impacting harvest cycles. Beyond agriculture, low water levels in rivers, particularly in Kalimantan, may hinder the transportation of imported coal and crude palm oil (CPO), threatening Indonesia’s trade balance. Food-related inflation for commodities such as rice, wheat, corn, remains a critical pressure point, with annual inflation in Indonesia forecasted between 3% and vegetable oil. 3.5% by the end of 2026.

Versions

  1. 2026-10-04 01:04 UTC El Niño impact on global food and rice markets
  2. 2026-09-10 14:39 UTC El Niño impact on global food and rice markets
  3. 2026-09-05 15:15 UTC El Niño impact on global food and rice markets
  4. 2026-08-29 12:02 UTC El Niño impact on global food and rice markets
  5. 2026-08-18 02:30 UTC El Niño impact on global food and rice markets

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