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El Niño impact on global food and rice markets

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2026-09-05 15:15 UTC → 2026-09-10 14:39 UTC · added ~~removed~~

The emergence of a strong El Niño phenomenon continues to drive global food security concerns and price volatility. Asian rice export prices have reached one-year highs due to El Niño-induced heatwaves, shifting supply dynamics, and weather-related milling constraints that affect grain recovery rates. In Thailand, the FOB price for 5% broken white rice reached $475 per ton on September 3, a two-month high and a $9 increase from the previous week. This rise is attributed to water scarcity as the rainy season ends and increased production costs. While demand from Iraq has declined, strong demand from the Philippines and Malaysia continues to support high price levels. Analysts suggest prices may stabilize if export purchasing slows, though short-term delivery needs currently maintain high levels. In Vietnam, 5% broken rice is trading between 438 and 442 USD per ton. Producers in the Mekong Delta remain concerned that low water levels in the Mekong River will reduce silt deposits, impacting future yields. In India, export prices for 5% broken rice have risen to between 366 and 371 USD per ton, as traders warn of the “weakest monsoon in 20 years.” To manage domestic stability, the government of Bangladesh is considering tightening export controls or banning fragrant rice exports to mitigate rising costs. On the broader commodity market, wheat prices on the Chicago Board of Trade have hit a three-year high, exacerbated by escalating tensions in the Black Sea region. Research from OCBC Group indicates that El Niño poses heightened food inflation risks across ASEAN nations, specifically threatening the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand. Because many regional economies are net food importers, there is an increased risk of imported inflation for commodities such as rice, wheat, corn, and vegetable oil.

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