[REVISION HISTORY]

El Niño impact on Indonesia climate and agriculture

Updated 9 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-09-11 01:12 UTC → 2026-09-11 11:33 UTC · added ~~removed~~

The El Niño phenomenon has strengthened in Indonesia, leading to forecasts of a delayed rainy season and a more intense dry season. Experts from the Institut Teknologi Bandung warned that the delay, potentially pushing the rainy season to early or mid-January 2027, could impact agricultural productivity. By late August, the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) confirmed that El Niño has reached a strong level, with a peak expected between August and September 2026 that may last until early 2027. This peak is projected to result in a drier dry season across approximately 25.41 percent of Indonesia’s land area. As of September 7, 2026, drought conditions in Central Java have expanded to affect 30 of 35 regencies, prompting the Regional Disaster Management Agency (BPBD) to distribute over 36 million liters of clean water to more than 1.1 million people. Environmental risks remain high; 14 hotspots were recently detected in Bulungan, North Kalimantan, while police in Riau are using drones to combat fires. To assist in Kalimantan, the Japanese government has deployed three CH-47 Chinook helicopters and 180 personnel. By early September 2026, BMKG reported highly variable weather patterns. While much of the country remains in a dry season, atmospheric dynamics like the Madden-Julian Oscillation, Kelvin waves, and cyclonic circulation are triggering localized rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds in parts of Sumatra, Kalimantan, West Java, and Papua. Conversely, regions in Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi, and Papua are experiencing extreme heat, with temperatures exceeding 35 degrees Celsius. In Sampang, East Java, the dry season is expected to persist until December, leading to severe water shortages in both rural and urban areas. In response to the ongoing drought, the Ministry of Public Works has addressed impacts in 1,760 of 2,200 identified locations.

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