[REVISION HISTORY]

European and US heat pump market growth

Updated 9 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-09-13 05:02 UTC → 2026-09-28 17:08 UTC · added ~~removed~~

Mid-2026 saw a sharp rise in heat pump sales across Europe and the United States. In Germany, the heating market grew 19% in the first half of 2026, with heat pump sales rising 40% to 194,500 units. This accounted for over half of the 352,000 total heating units sold, while oil-based heating fell 11%. Despite this, experts warn that momentum is needed to meet climate goals, noting that 4 million German heating systems are over 30 years old and over 40% of the nation's 21.5 million systems do not meet current technical standards. In Poland, approximately 855,000 heat pumps are currently operating in households. While the market is growing, there are concerns that the pace may fall short of the National Energy and Climate Plan's ambitious target of 1.6 million residential units by 2030. A more conservative projection suggests 1.16 million units may be reached instead. Global trends show accelerating adoption as residential heating shifts toward electrification. In the U.S., heat pump shipments outpaced fossil fuel furnaces by 32% in Q1 2026. By September 2026, data from the U.S. Census Bureau indicated that heat pump technology is being integrated into a significant portion of new construction. In 2025, 48% of homes under construction and 53% of new buildings included these systems in their energy profiles. The Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) noted that heat pumps serve as a dual-purpose solution for both heating and cooling by transferring thermal energy rather than relying on gas combustion. ~~Economic factors remain a significant barrier~~ By late September 2026, the European residential market showed continued expansion, with sales in ~~Europe.~~ 12 European countries rising 11% in the first half of 2026 to approximately 1,163,000 units. The ~~IEA~~ European Heat Pump ~~Monitor 2026 noted that in Germany, electricity costs approximately 3.3 times more than~~ Association (EHPA) attributed this growth to rising oil and gas ~~per kilowatt-hour, whereas the ratio in Sweden is only 1.2. In~~ prices following the ~~United Kingdom, homeowners are transitioning from fossil fuels, supported by government grants through~~ February 2026 closure of the ~~Boiler Upgrade Scheme.~~ Strait of Hormuz.

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