European seasonal weather outlook

In early July, forecasters issued a winter outlook for Europe, noting that a milder season was expected as an Atlantic cold anomaly expanded. By early August, the focus shifted to the summer forecast, which projected a warmer-than‑average August across southern and southeastern Europe under a dominant high‑pressure ridge. The forecast also warned of possible short, intense thunderstorms and a later shift in atmospheric circulation that could bring cooler air and increased precipitation to north‑west Europe. Meteorologists highlighted the developing El Niño phenomenon as a factor that may influence autumn and winter patterns, potentially leading to more extreme rainfall, droughts, or localized flooding.

Overall, the series of forecasts illustrate a transition from a milder winter expectation to a warm summer outlook, while also emphasizing uncertainty and the potential for later seasonal changes driven by broader climate signals such as El Niño.