Global and European heat pump market evolution

The global heat pump market has seen significant shifts, with an International Energy Agency study noting a record surge in sales during 2021–2022 followed by a stabilization period. While the United States maintains the largest installed base, China leads in annual sales. Under current stated policies, heat pumps are projected to cover approximately 20% of global building-heating demand by 2035.

In Europe, the adoption of heat pump technology is increasingly viewed as a tool for enhancing electrical grid flexibility. The European Heat Pump Association suggests that as heating and industry undergo electrification, heat pumps can support the grid by adjusting operation to match periods of high renewable energy availability. To support this, the European Commission’s Electrification Action Plan proposes reforms to electricity bills and grid charges to incentivize flexible usage through smart controls and dynamic tariffs.

Regional data highlights strong growth, particularly in Italy, which has seen over 5 million units installed. In 2025, Italy ranked second in European sales with 423,000 units, trailing only France.