Global beef market supply and trade dynamics

Global red meat markets are experiencing supply constraints and price volatility. In the United States, beef production is limited by low cattle availability, with significant production increases not expected until 2028. While the US dairy herd has grown, rising input costs for hay and grain are impacting cow-calf lease agreements.

In Australia, the cattle industry has reached unprecedented beef export volumes. However, regional conditions vary, with southern areas seeing restocking due to rainfall while northern regions face drying conditions.

Australian beef competitiveness in the Japanese market is facing pressure. The price advantage Australian beef holds over American products in Japan has reportedly decreased by 25 per cent in US dollar terms. This shift is driven by potential market access for Brazil, softening US cattle prices, and currency fluctuations. Analysts note that for every one per cent rise in the Australian dollar against the Japanese yen, Australian beef becomes approximately one per cent more expensive than US beef.