Global fossil fuel production and coal expansion

Reports indicate a significant gap between international climate targets and actual fossil fuel production and infrastructure plans. The Production Gap Report 2023, produced by the Stockholm Environment Institute for the United Nations Environment Programme, found that current production plans from the 20 most intensive countries exceed the 1.5-degree Celsius warming limit by 110 percent and the 2-degree limit by 69 percent. Meeting Paris Agreement targets would require halving global fossil fuel production, yet major producers are planning to maintain or increase levels.

Complementary research from Leiden University suggests that in high-emission countries, at least 87 percent of the population would need to adopt significant lifestyle changes—such as reducing internal combustion engine use and switching from fossil fuel heating—to achieve a 1.5-degree compatible carbon footprint by 2030. However, the study notes that for some nations, even extensive industrial decarbonization combined with lifestyle changes may not meet 2050 targets.

This trend is further evidenced by a surge in coal-specific projects. According to research from Urgewald, there is a 3:1 ratio of new project announcements to cancellations, with 257 new projects announced against 76 canceled or postponed. Data shows 335 companies plan to construct 606 new coal-fired power plants with a capacity exceeding 740 GW. China and India remain primary drivers, accounting for nearly 90 percent of the global coal capacity currently under development. Expansion is also noted in Australia and Turkey, where coal accounted for 34 percent of electricity generation in 2025, outpacing wind and solar combined.