Horn of Africa regional security instability

The Horn of Africa is experiencing heightened instability driven by overlapping security and humanitarian crises. In Ethiopia, renewed fighting in the north involving federal forces and Tigrayan groups has threatened the 2022 Pretoria Agreement. Tensions have also escalated between Ethiopia and Eritrea, with Addis Ababa accusing Asmara of territorial violations at the UN Security Council. Furthermore, Ethiopia’s pursuit of Red Sea access has prompted diplomatic coordination among Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan, and Somalia.

In Somalia, reports indicate that Ethiopian forces withdrew from strategic towns in the Bay and Bakool regions, which allegedly allowed Al-Shabaab militants to seize territory. Local officials have called for investigations into claims that UAE-linked funds were used to influence military commanders to facilitate these withdrawals.

Following these developments, Somalia has warned that political and security instability in Ethiopia could undermine the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). Somali State Minister for Foreign Affairs Ali Mohamed Omar Balcad cautioned that prolonged unrest in Ethiopia might force Addis Ababa to reduce or withdraw troops from the mission, potentially creating security gaps in the fight against Al-Shabaab.