[REVISION HISTORY]

Kenya and East Africa El Niño flood preparedness

Updated 15 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-09-28 17:01 UTC → 2026-09-30 04:53 UTC · added ~~removed~~

Kenya and Tanzania are intensifying preparations for El Niño-related flooding, with the World Meteorological Organization forecasting the phenomenon will persist through February 2027. In Kenya, authorities warn that approximately 1.5 million people across all 47 counties could be affected. In Nairobi, Governor Johnson Sakaja has waived application and approval requirements for minor building repairs, such as installing gutters, to assist residents in preparing for the rains. To mitigate flooding, the Nairobi County administration is deploying machinery to widen and deepen drainage channels and desilt waterways. Sakaja emphasized a ‘One County, One Plan, One Command’ approach, while warning that illegal dumping in drainage corridors will face strict penalties. Recent forecasts from the Kenya Meteorological Department indicate rainfall across 32 counties between late September and October 5, 2026. The advisory predicts varying conditions, including thunderstorms and morning or afternoon showers. In the central region, including Nairobi, Kiambu, and Nyeri, rainy spells are expected to increase. Nairobi may see temperatures drop to 24°C by October 5, while Nyandarua could experience nighttime lows of 5°C. Coastal counties like Mombasa and Kilifi are expected to remain sunny until light showers arrive after October 2, while Western Kenya and the Lake Victoria Basin are forecasted to have sunny mornings followed by light afternoon showers. In Tanzania, the Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) forecasts above-normal to normal rainfall for much of the northern and eastern regions. To mitigate potential ~~disruptions from heavy rainfall predicted to peak in November 2026,~~ disruptions, the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology has revised the 2026 national assessment and examination schedule. Deputy Minister Wanu Hafidh Ameir stated these adjustments aim to prevent logistical challenges and ensure the safety of students and officials. The revised schedule includes assessments for Standard Two, Standard Four, Form Two, and Form Four students occurring throughout October and early November. Additionally, the Ministry of Minerals has issued urgent directives to the mining sector to ~~prepare for heavy rains expected between October and December. Permanent Secretary Yahya Samamba instructed mine owners to~~ improve safety ~~protocols, increase inspections of~~ protocols and inspect mining pits and ~~toxic~~ tailings dams, and strengthen emergency response plans. This follows warnings that soil saturation causes approximately 70 percent of mining accidents through pit wall collapses. Stakeholders, including the Federation of Miners' Associations dams ahead of ~~Tanzania, are conducting training sessions to help miners implement these safety measures.~~ heavy rains.

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