[REVISION HISTORY]

Polish inflation trends and banking sector risks

Updated 24 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-10-25 20:32 UTC → 2026-10-26 16:29 UTC · added ~~removed~~

In September 2026, consumer price inflation in Poland rose to 4.1% year-on-year, according to revised data from Statistics Poland (GUS), up from 3.4% in August. This upward revision was primarily driven by a 36.1% year-on-year spike in fuel prices. While service inflation slowed to 5.3%, goods inflation rose to 3.6%. The National Bank of Poland (NBP) reported a lower core inflation rate of 3.1% for the same ~~period, reflecting a discrepancy between the CPI and metrics excluding volatile food and energy costs.~~ period. To mitigate rising costs, the government continues to implement the ‘Lower Fuel Prices’ (CPN) ~~program, which includes VAT and excise tax reductions and is scheduled to remain in effect~~ program through the end of ~~2026. The program is~~ 2026, funded by a ~~new~~ windfall tax on fuel companies with excessive profits and is estimated to be a significant budgetary burden of approximately 5 to 10 billion PLN. To manage fluctuations, the Ministry of Energy issued new maximum price limits for October 16, setting gasoline 95 at 6.95 PLN/l, 98-octane at 7.76 PLN/l, and diesel at 8.03 PLN/l. companies. Despite recent volatility, the Ministry of Finance’s 2027 budget draft forecasts stable inflation within the NBP’s target ~~range, projecting rates of 2.5% in 2028, 2.6% in 2029, and 2.5% in 2030.~~ range for 2028–2030. On October 7, the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) maintained the key reference rate at 3.75%. ~~Concurrently, the~~ The banking sector faces ~~escalating~~ systemic risks regarding WIBOR-indexed loan disputes, with potential costs estimated between 284 billion and 350 billion PLN. ~~Some analysts suggest total costs could approach 460~~ However, the credit market is simultaneously seeing significant expansion. Data from the Credit Information Bureau (BIK) shows that mortgage loans issued in the first nine months of 2026 reached 116.4 billion ~~PLN when including consumer loans. To manage this, banks will~~ PLN, surpassing the total for the entire previous year. This 41.7% year-on-year increase in volume is driven by rising wages and lower financing costs, with refinancing accounting for nearly one-third of new activity. As the market prepares for the transition from WIBOR to the ~~new~~ POLSTR reference rate ~~for new agreements starting~~ on January 1, 2027, ~~though WIBOR may persist in existing contracts until 2036.~~ experts advise borrowers to review contract amendments due to differing calculation methods and potential corrective spreads.

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