[REVISION HISTORY]

Polish inflation trends and economic forecasts

Updated 5 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-09-11 08:29 UTC → 2026-09-11 13:19 UTC · added ~~removed~~

In July 2026, the National Bank of Poland reported that core inflation rose to 3.1% year-on-year, up from 3% in June. This increase was attributed to the expiration of the ‘Lower Fuel Price’ package and rising costs in sectors such as transport, recreation, sport, and culture. By late August, the Polish Ministry of Finance released a 2027 state budget draft containing long-term inflation ~~projections. The government forecasts that~~ projections, estimating average annual inflation ~~will stabilize within the National Bank of Poland’s target range, estimating~~ rates of 2.5% in 2028, 2.6% in 2029, and 2.5% in 2030. These projections assume weakening economic demand and a slight decline in average employment, though they do not account for potential impacts from the European Commission’s proposed ETS2 decarbonization directive. On August 31, 2026, Statistics Poland (GUS) ~~released preliminary data showing~~ reported that inflation rose to 3.4% year-on-year in August, exceeding ~~the 3.1% forecasted by analysts.~~ analyst forecasts. This uptick was primarily driven by a ~~significant surge in fuel prices, which increased by~~ 24.2% year-on-year and 5.2% month-on-month, alongside a 4.1% annual increase in electricity, gas, and other fuels. Conversely, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices fell by 0.9% year-on-year. Despite these inflationary pressures, the country's economy showed resilience, with GDP growing by 3.9% year-on-year surge in ~~the second quarter of 2026.~~ fuel prices. On September 9, 2026, the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) decided to maintain the reference interest rate at ~~3.75%.~~ 3.75% for the fifth consecutive time. NBP President Adam Glapiński indicated that rates are expected to remain stable through the end of the year and into ~~mid-2027, noting that while inflation is near~~ mid-2027. Concurrently, the ~~upper limit of~~ Polish mortgage market is seeing a structural shift as PKO Bank Polski has introduced mortgage loans based on the ~~target range, it remains within it. Analysts noted~~ new POLSTR index, which is intended to replace WIBOR by 2027. Additionally, analysts from Pekao have warned that ~~the August inflationary spike was largely~~ household energy prices in Poland could increase by 19% by 2027, driven by ~~supply-side factors, including high global oil and~~ rising gas ~~prices and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.~~ costs.

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