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US prediction markets grow amid regulatory scrutiny

Updated 35 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

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2026-09-10 20:13 UTC → 2026-09-11 09:42 UTC · added ~~removed~~

The US prediction market landscape is experiencing rapid growth and intensifying regulatory scrutiny. Kalshi, which claims a 90% to 95% US market share, reported total trading volume exceeding $171 billion for 2026. A notable trend includes significant participation from young adults; users aged 18 to 21 have accounted for approximately $5.4 billion in trading volume so far this year, with roughly $3.9 billion of that directed toward sports-related events and parlays. In early September 2026, Kalshi continued offering aggressive promotions for sports and entertainment ~~markets.~~ markets, particularly surrounding the start of the NFL season. High-profile trading activity was highlighted by a single trader securing a payout of nearly $4 million after correctly forecasting an upset at the US Open, specifically holding an $888,234.14 position on Ben Shelton to defeat Carlos Alcaraz, a match where the Spaniard was initially favored with a 75% win probability. Kalshi is also diversifying its product offerings and expanding its ecosystem. The platform has ~~filed~~ received CFTC approval to ~~launch~~ list perpetual futures ~~contracts~~ for gold and silver, titled ‘GOLDPERP’ and ‘SILVERPERP’, which ~~would~~ will track U.S. dollar spot prices ~~on a continuous~~ 24/7 ~~basis~~ using the Pyth Network. Kalshi is also seeking regulatory approval to launch approximately 60 perpetual futures contracts tied to individual U.S. equities and ETFs, such as Tesla, Apple, and Nvidia. This move has drawn scrutiny from institutions like Citadel Securities regarding market oversight and potential risks like insider trading. Additionally, a ~~new~~ partnership between trading technology provider ION and Coinbase aims to integrate Kalshi’s regulated event ~~contracts—covering elections, sports, and economic indicators—directly~~ contracts directly into the Coinbase consumer app. As the NFL season begins, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are increasingly competing with traditional sportsbooks in the advertising space. While online sports betting is restricted to 30 U.S. states, prediction markets operate under different legal frameworks by classifying activities as swaps. ~~Data from iSpot indicates that prediction markets have accounted for approximately $50 million, or 18%, of the $275 million total sports betting advertising spend recorded through August.~~

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