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Prediction market volume and Kalshi market position

Updated 4 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-08-24 16:05 UTC → 2026-08-31 16:25 UTC · added removed

Following the 2026 FIFA World Cup, global search interest in prediction markets has returned to pre-tournament levels. Combined weekly trading volumes for the industry’s two primary platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, have dropped below $10 billion for the first time since June. During the peak of the tournament in June 2026, the market experienced significant growth, with Kalshi processing $31.5 billion in volume and volume—an 87% increase from May—and Polymarket posting $13.3 billion. Despite the overall market contraction, Kalshi has maintained a dominant position among US-approved platforms. Regulated by the CFTC, Kalshi captured approximately 83% of notional trading volume among approved US platforms during June and July, attracting institutional and retail participants who avoid unregulated venues. To maintain momentum amid declining market interest, momentum, Kalshi has introduced various promotional incentives for new users. These include incentives, such as a $25 bonus following $25 in cash trades, specifically targeting markets like the NFL preseason markets. Additionally, a referral program offers bonus credits ranging from $15 to $500 across various markets, including MLB, UFC, and political events. the FedEx St. Jude Championship. These promotions remain subject to geographic restrictions, as Kalshi is currently unavailable restrictions in several U.S. states, including Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Nevada, and Ohio. In late August 2026, Kalshi expanded a significant expansion of its promotional offerings through various referral codes. Codes such as ‘SILIVE’ provide new users reach, Kalshi has partnered with bonus credits between $15 and $500 after qualifying trades, while other codes like ‘SDS’, ‘ALCOM’, ‘MLIVE’, ‘NJCOM’, ‘NOLA’, and ‘ELITE’ offer Alpaca to integrate event contracts into Alpaca’s global brokerage infrastructure. Through Alpaca Derivatives LLC, a standard $25 bonus upon reaching specific trading thresholds. These incentives are timed CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant, Alpaca’s partners and users will gain access to coincide with high-volume events such as the NFL preseason, MLB games, Kalshi’s regulated marketplace, covering financial markets, economic indicators, weather, sports, and UFC Fight Night. Competition for user acquisition has intensified, with Polymarket also offering a welcome bonus where cultural events. This collaboration aims to leverage Alpaca’s access to approximately 14 million brokerage accounts worldwide, allowing users can trade $10 to receive a $20 bonus. access diverse markets through existing technology stacks.

Versions

  1. 2026-08-31 16:25 UTC Prediction market volume and Kalshi market position
  2. 2026-08-24 16:05 UTC Prediction market volume and Kalshi market position
  3. 2026-08-23 16:22 UTC Prediction market volume and Kalshi market position
  4. 2026-08-22 14:41 UTC Prediction market volume and Kalshi market position
  5. 2026-08-18 17:06 UTC Prediction market volume and Kalshi market position

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