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Brazil 2026 race: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied

Updated 12 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-09-09 18:48 UTC → 2026-09-09 23:22 UTC · added ~~removed~~

The 2026 presidential race remains highly competitive, with recent polling showing a tightening contest between President Luiz Inácio Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. While earlier Nexus data placed Lula at 39% in a first-round scenario against Bolsonaro’s 33%, a subsequent BTG/Nexus poll shows Lula leading with 39% but Bolsonaro increasing his share to 35%. In simulated second-round runoffs, the candidates remain in a technical tie, with Bolsonaro holding 46% against Lula’s 45%. New regional data from Quaest highlights significant geographic divides. In São Paulo, Bolsonaro leads slightly with 31% against Lula's 30%, and in the Federal District, Bolsonaro holds a 31% lead over Lula's 28%. Notably, Quaest reports that Bolsonaro has surpassed Lula for the first time in Minas Gerais in a second-round scenario, though recent data suggests the candidates are currently in a technical tie in that key electoral state. Lula maintains strong advantages in Pernambuco, while Bolsonaro shows strength in parts of Rio de Janeiro. Other candidates continue to influence the landscape. Writer Augusto Cury has seen significant growth, appearing in second-round simulations against Lula with 45% and showing double-digit support in various first-round metrics. Additionally, Meio/Ideia polling shows Lula at 38.4% and Bolsonaro at 37.3% in first-round simulations. Campaign strategies continue to diverge. Lula has engaged with the financial sector through meetings with business leaders in Brasília, while Flávio Bolsonaro has focused on a fiscal adjustment plan involving spending cuts and bureaucratic reductions. Voter decisiveness appears high, with 81% of those who have chosen a candidate stating their decision is final.

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