Sub-Saharan Africa economic trends

Sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing a projected slowdown in economic growth for 2026, with regional rates expected to decrease by 0.2 percentage points to 4.3% following a strong 2025. This deceleration is attributed largely to the impact of the war in the Middle East.

Within the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA), economic activity has shown resilience, though inflation trends vary. Annual consumer price inflation across the UEMOA accelerated to 0.8% in June 2026, up from 0.4% in May, driven by recovering food prices and rising costs in the hotel and restaurant sectors. Mali and Burkina Faso continue to lead regional inflation, while Niger, Guinea-Bissau, and Benin have seen price decreases.

Specific regional pressures include rising import prices in Senegal, particularly for mineral products and transport equipment. Senegal is also navigating fuel price increases for gasoline and diesel due to global market fluctuations linked to Middle East tensions, even as the country emerges as a significant oil producer via the Sangomar field.

Other regional trends show significant divergence. In Mozambique, annual inflation reached 4.57% in June 2026, exceeding the government's 3.70% target due to climate shocks and fuel supply disruptions. Conversely, Zimbabwe reported a fall in its annual inflation rate to 2.9% in August 2026, supported by tight monetary policies and exchange rate stability.