[REVISION HISTORY]

Texas 2026 Senate race: Dead heat and demographic divides

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What changed

2026-10-31 16:55 UTC → 2026-11-02 17:13 UTC · added ~~removed~~

Texas 2026 Senate race: ~~Record spending~~ Dead heat and ~~shifting support~~ demographic divides

The Texas 2026 U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton has ~~escalated into~~ entered its final days as a massive financial and political battleground. Both candidates have spent over $500 million, making the contest projected to be the costliest in history. Elon Musk has significantly influenced the race with approximately $158 million in contributions, ~~while Republican spending has included over $100 million in advertising targeting~~ a factor Talarico ~~on gender identity issues. As early voting surges,~~ has criticized while characterizing his campaign as a “David versus Goliath” struggle. Recent polling indicates the race ~~has seen unexpected shifts~~ is a virtual dead heat. A Fox News poll showed both candidates receiving approximately 49% support, while a Trafalgar Group poll conducted in ~~political support. Neil Bush, brother of former President George W. Bush, announced his~~ late October and early ~~vote for Talarico, criticizing Paxton’s efforts to challenge the 2020 election results as an “affront~~ November placed Paxton with a slim 0.6 percentage point lead, at 48.1% to ~~our democratic institutions.” Additionally, Barbara Bush has reportedly supported~~ Talarico’s ~~campaign through donations~~ 47.5%. Demographic data shows Paxton maintains advantages among men, white voters, and older voters, whereas Talarico leads among women, Hispanic voters, and Black voters, with his strongest support among those aged 30 to 39. Paxton, who secured the ~~Lone Star Rising PAC. A group of five former~~ Republican ~~officials, including former state legislators, also voiced~~ primary by defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn, maintains strong support ~~for Talarico, describing Paxton as a “corrupt politician.” Former Tarrant County Judge Glen Whitley has also endorsed Talarico, describing Paxton as the most corrupt politician Texas~~ from Donald Trump. His campaign has ~~ever seen. Recent polling indicates Talarico holds~~ faced scrutiny regarding past business dealings, including an investment in a ~~narrow lead over Paxton.~~ company run by a convicted fraudster. Talarico, a state representative and pastor, ~~has raised approximately $155 million since early 2025, largely through small-dollar donations. In Dallas, Talarico held a large rally as part of his “Clear Eyes, Full Hearts” tour, drawing up~~ continues to ~~3,000 attendees. Meanwhile, Paxton has accused mainstream media of concealing Talarico’s views, characterizing him as~~ run a ~~“socialist Democrat” who is not being truthful with the public regarding~~ campaign centered on economic populism and his Christian faith. Despite sharp policy ~~stances.~~ differences, both candidates have expressed shared concerns regarding the impact of social media on children's mental health.

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