[REVISION HISTORY]

Turkish political polling and municipal leadership shifts

Updated 13 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-10-19 11:05 UTC → 2026-10-25 10:05 UTC · added ~~removed~~

Recent polling data in Turkey indicates fluctuating support for major political ~~parties, particularly within the Istanbul region.~~ parties. In mid-August 2026, AK Parti Istanbul Provincial Chairman Abdullah Özdemir reported ~~that~~ the AK Parti held 44.5% of the vote in Istanbul, leading the ~~CHP, which stood~~ CHP at approximately 40%. By late ~~August 2026, data suggested a more complex landscape. In the Beyoğlu district of Istanbul, a July report by analyst Murat Kızılboğa indicated~~ August, the Yeni Parti ~~leading~~ led in Beyoğlu with 36.2%, ~~ahead of the AK Parti at 34.3%. Nationally, an~~ while a national Optimar Araştırma poll placed the AK Parti ~~in first with 33.4%, followed by~~ at 33.4% and the Yeni Parti at 18.2%. In Throughout September 2026, ~~Murat Kızılboğa’s analysis highlighted regional shifts. In Afyonkarahisar,~~ various polls maintained the AK Parti ~~leads with 38.2%, followed by~~ as the ~~Yeni~~ leading party, though support levels varied. ORC Araştırma reported the AK Parti at ~~26.9%~~ 35.2% and ~~the MHP~~ Yeni Parti at ~~12%. In Trabzon,~~ 19.4%, while ASAL Research found the AK Parti ~~saw a decline to 36.5% from 47.77% in the 2023 elections, while the~~ at 33.8% and Yeni Parti ~~rose to 24.6%~~ at 23.6%. GENAR reported AK Parti support at 36.1%. Regional shifts were noted by Murat Kızılboğa, showing AK Parti declines in Trabzon, Şanlıurfa, and Erzurum, alongside growth for the Yeniden Refah Partisi (YRP) ~~grew to 9%. Political shifts are also occurring through municipal~~ and DEM Parti. Municipal leadership ~~changes.~~ shifts have caused significant political friction. Following ~~the resignation of Ankara Metropolitan Municipality Mayor~~ Mansur ~~Yavaş~~ Yavaş’s resignation from the CHP, ~~reports suggest~~ a ~~wave~~ dispute emerged over the number of ~~transfers~~ mayors moving to other parties. CHP sources claim only 113 of 416 municipalities won in 2024 remain with the AK CHP, while Yeni Parti ~~may be imminent, including eight district~~ sources assert 252 mayors ~~in Ankara. In Muğla, Mayor Ahmet Aras resigned from the CHP~~ have joined them. Public sentiment regarding Yavaş’s decision to ~~serve~~ remain independent is reported as ~~an independent.~~ positive by 56.7% of respondents in some surveys. Additionally, ~~Karaburun Mayor İlkay Girgin Erdoğan resigned from the Yeni Party to serve as~~ an ~~independent. Addressing these shifts on October 17, 2026, Mansur~~ ANK-AR Research study indicated a potential presidential matchup where Yavaş ~~stated that mayors are responsible~~ leads Erdoğan with 43.7% to ~~the people who elected them and that those changing parties will ‘give an account at the ballot box.’~~ 36.6%.

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