[REVISION HISTORY]

Turkey inflation forecasts rise; policy calibration underway

Updated 13 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

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2026-09-05 18:47 UTC → 2026-09-12 14:11 UTC · added ~~removed~~

In mid-August 2026, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) revised its year-end inflation forecast upward from 26% to 28%, citing supply-side shocks and energy price volatility. TCMB President Fatih Karahan noted that while the disinflation process has slowed, the bank intends to maintain a tight and cautious monetary policy. Economic management, led by Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, is reportedly considering a ‘calibration’ of this tight policy to provide relief to the real sector. On September 2, 2026, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.84% in August, bringing the annual inflation rate to 31.51%. This figure exceeds previous year-end expectations. Key drivers included housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels, which saw a 39.77% annual rise, and transportation at 35.08%. The service sector's annual inflation reached 40.28%. Energy prices rose by 5.46% in August, driven largely by an 11.23% increase in fuel prices. Discrepancies in data persist, as the Inflation Research Group (ENAG) calculated a significantly higher annual inflation rate of 49.03% for August. Additionally, DİSK-AR reported that minimum wage earners lost 6,196 TL in purchasing power during the first eight months of 2026. The reported figures will impact upcoming January 2027 salary adjustments for civil servants and ~~retirees, while~~ retirees. Furthermore, the legal ceiling for rent increases in September has been set at 31.79% based on the 12-month average CPI.

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