United States COVID-19 summer surge

The United States is experiencing a summer surge of COVID-19, a trend that deviates from the traditional autumn and winter peaks of respiratory viruses. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that the test positivity rate rose above 3% for the week ending August 8, with increases observed in every state.

While the surge was initially noted particularly in the South and West, including states such as Florida, Texas, and Georgia, the trend has expanded significantly. As of late August 2026, CDC epidemic modeling estimates that infections are growing or likely growing in 47 states, up from 37 states in July. By late August, the CDC reported rises in all 50 states, with the most significant increases remaining in the South and West.

Experts suggest high temperatures may drive people into air-conditioned, indoor environments, facilitating transmission. Other factors include waning population immunity and more transmissible variants. In California, summer peaks have begun to exceed winter levels, with wastewater activity reaching moderate or high concentrations.

Despite the upward trend, medical experts note that current levels remain below those seen during previous major surges. Clinicians warn that symptoms such as sore throat, cough, fatigue, congestion, and fever make it difficult to differentiate COVID-19 from the common cold or flu without testing. Vulnerable populations, particularly adults aged 65 and older, remain at higher risk for severe complications. Health officials continue to recommend vaccination, improved ventilation, masking, and timely testing.