[REVISION HISTORY]

US-Mexico cattle trade reopening and market volatility

Updated 19 times since CLSTR started tracking revisions of this situation.

What changed

2026-09-17 12:03 UTC → 2026-09-21 22:02 UTC · added ~~removed~~

In August 2026, the US-Mexico cattle trade began a phased reopening to manage the New World screwworm. Following a 14-month closure, the USDA scheduled the first reopening for 24 August at the Douglas, Arizona, port, with initial shipments expected from Sonora and Chihuahua. Market volatility has persisted due to shifting trade policies and consumer demand concerns. While cattle futures initially showed signs of decline in early September, they experienced a technical bounce, marking the first higher weekly closes in over a month. During this period, feeder cattle prices rose in regions like Missouri due to light supply, while lean hog futures declined due to profit-taking and demand concerns. Slaughter numbers were reported at 109,000 head, an increase from the previous week but lower than the previous year. Industry analysts continue to monitor White House executive orders, suggesting they may be “political gestures intended to appease farm and cattle groups” following a 300,000 metric ton beef import deal. While there is speculation regarding mandatory country-of-origin labeling (MCOOL), analysts note it is unlikely to have an immediate impact on prices. Recent downward pressure on cattle futures ~~has~~ emerged following the announcement by US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins that the USDA is preparing to reopen the Santa Teresa, New Mexico, port of ~~entry. This reopening will~~ entry, initially be limited to 750 head of cattle per day. ~~Additionally, market participants are anticipating~~ This news, alongside concerns regarding consumer demand and fuel costs, contributed to lower trends for both cattle and hog futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. However, cattle futures rose following a USDA Cattle on Feed report ~~expected to show approximately 11.268~~ showing 11.163 million head in US feedlots, a ~~1.7%~~ 0.7% increase from last year. ~~Broader economic pressures, including fuel costs and declining consumer sentiment, continue to weigh on both beef and pork markets.~~ This was lower than the 1.7% increase analysts had anticipated. Notably, August placements fell 9% year-on-year, marking the lowest August total since records began in 1996.

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