US clean energy policy and market volatility

The United States clean energy sector is navigating significant volatility caused by shifting federal policies and tax credit deadlines. Recent developments involving the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and Section 232 tariffs on polysilicon imports have created procurement challenges, though the 45X advanced manufacturing credit remains available provided supply chains avoid Chinese-controlled entities.

While a surge in project announcements occurred in mid-2026 as companies sought to secure tax credits before the July 4 OBBBA deadline, these gains have been offset by project cancellations. Reports from advocacy group E2 and Atlas Public Policy indicate that the loss of approximately 18,300 potential jobs from cancelled projects has countered the job creation promised by new announcements. Furthermore, data from the BlueGreen Alliance suggests that recent energy initiatives have led to the delay or cancellation of 223 wind and solar projects, totaling an estimated $82 billion in capital investment and 111,000 jobs.

Financial sector support is also shifting; a study for Unleash Prosperity highlights that six major U.S. banks—including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo—have withdrawn from the Net-Zero Banking Alliance.

Despite these hurdles, research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology suggests the transition to clean electricity may remain resilient. Modeling in the report “Glass Half-Full: Building a Decarbonized a U. S. Power Sector” indicates that approximately three-quarters of the clean electricity capacity projected under previous policies could survive the phase-out of wind and solar subsidies. While onshore wind power faces specific challenges and various decarbonization initiatives may be delayed, experts suggest the pursuit of deep decarbonization may continue.