US-Israel military operations and Iranian political crisis

Military operations conducted by the United States and Israel have successfully degraded much of Iran’s military infrastructure, including its navy, air force, missile production, and senior leadership. Despite these strikes, the campaigns have not achieved regime change or a political resolution. Analysts note that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has demonstrated resilience, prompting a strategic shift toward containment and financial denial to limit the IRGC’s capabilities.

Concurrently, internal political divisions have emerged within Iran. Former officials and political elites are debating the country’s strategic direction following military escalations and domestic unrest. Key points of contention include the validity of the Islamabad agreement, intended to end hostilities with the United States, and the chain of command regarding military actions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Reformist figures have criticized establishment elements for undermining diplomatic efforts, while others have warned that Iran’s reliance on China and Russia risks reducing its foreign policy autonomy. These disagreements highlight growing friction between reformist factions and the IRGC regarding military operations and diplomatic engagement.