Apple projected to lead smartphone market growth in 2026

Analysts Jeff Pu and Henry Huang of GF Securities project that Apple will be the only major smartphone manufacturer to achieve shipment growth in 2026. While the global smartphone market is expected to shrink by approximately 14.2% to 1.08 billion units, Apple is forecasted to see a 4% year-over-year increase, reaching 257 million units. This growth would raise Apple’s global market share to 24% in 2026, up from 20% in 2025.

In contrast, competitors like Samsung and Huawei are expected to see flat shipment growth (0%), while other manufacturers like Xiaomi and OPPO/realme are projected to face significant declines. The report identifies rising memory prices as a primary driver for this industry-wide downturn, forcing manufacturers to reduce shipment plans and increase device prices. The period between 2026 and 2027 is described as one of the most challenging for the industry.

Despite the positive outlook for market share, Apple faces specific product challenges. The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max have reportedly received a lukewarm reception due to weight concerns and competition from the iPhone Duo. Additionally, production constraints, including hinge supply issues for the iPhone Duo and camera-related limitations for the iPhone 18 Pro series, may impact output.