El Niño event forecast to reach historic intensity

El Niño climate anomaly sea surface temperature extreme weather global warming

Meteorologists and climate agencies are warning of an exceptionally strong El Niño event developing in the Pacific Ocean, which could be one of the most intense on record since the 19th century. Forecasts suggest sea surface temperature anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific could reach 3.5°C at the phenomenon's peak between October and December 2026.

The event is expected to have significant global consequences. The Met Office warns that 2027 is very likely to become the warmest year on record. Regional impacts include increased rainfall in parts of South America, such as Argentina, and potential storminess in the UK. Conversely, regions like Colombia and Venezuela may face drier conditions. In Mexico, researchers warn of unprecedented heatwaves.

Economic and logistical disruptions are already being anticipated. The Panama Canal Authority has announced it will cap daily vessel transits starting in September to manage declining water levels caused by the expected reduction in precipitation. In the Pacific, sea surface temperatures have already shown anomalies between 2.5°C and 5°C above normal.

Entities

CIIFEN · International Center for ENSO Research · Met Office · Meteored · NOAA · Pacific Ocean · Panama Canal Authority

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

[○ 1 SOURCE] There is over a 90% probability that the El Niño phenomenon will reach exceptional intensity in late 2026. noticiasargentinas.com
[● 2 SOURCES] Air temperatures in much of South America are expected to be 2.0°C to 3.0°C above normal. www.excelsior.com.mx
[○ 1 SOURCE] In Argentina, rainfall is expected to be 30% above normal in October, 70% in November, and 90% in December. cdnoticias.com
[● 2 SOURCES] The year 2027 is very likely to become the warmest year on record. ca.news.yahoo.com · www.standard.co.uk
[● 2 SOURCES] Sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific reached between 2.5°C and 5°C in July. www.criterioonline.com · cdnoticias.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] The Panama Canal will cap daily vessel transits to 34 starting September 4, and 32 starting September 15. globalnews.ca
[● 2 SOURCES] Temperature anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific could reach approximately 3.5°C at the peak of the event. www.criterioonline.com · cdnoticias.com
[● 3 SOURCES] The current El Niño event is expected to be the strongest since the 19th century. www.bbc.co.uk · ca.news.yahoo.com · www.standard.co.uk