El Niño intensifies, threatening global food security and agriculture

El Niño food insecurity drought climate change agricultural impact

A strengthening El Niño phenomenon is causing significant climate disruptions globally. Meteorologists and agencies like NOAA report a high probability—exceeding 90% in some regions—of a very strong event through 2026 and 2027, with a 75% chance of it being the most intense since 1950. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific have already exceeded 3°C.

In Honduras, the drought has led to the loss of approximately 4 million quintals of corn and beans. To combat food insecurity, the World Food Programme (WFP) is providing assistance to 191,000 people through cash transfers and vouchers, while also supporting 12,000 small producers with climate insurance. The Honduran government has also distributed corn silage to livestock producers in regions like San Marcos de Colón to protect cattle stocks.

Other regions are also preparing for impacts. In Colombia, Ideam warns of reduced rainfall and rising temperatures, potentially affecting water supplies and hydroelectricity. In Brazil, authorities are monitoring risks to the 2026/2027 harvest due to irregular rainfall and heat, particularly in states like Mato Grosso and Pará.

Entities

Antonio Guterres · Argentina · Colombia · Commission for the Regulation of Energy and Gas · El Niño · El Niño · Honduras · IDEAM · Maldives · Maldives National Disaster Management Authority · NOAA · National Centre of Meteorology

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

[○ 1 SOURCE] The El Niño phenomenon is in a warm phase with a 100% probability of persisting through the September-November quarter. www.eschaco.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] El Niño is established and will intensify to a very strong level toward the end of 2026. www.tiempofueguino.com
[● 3 SOURCES] The El Niño intensity is expected to be strong or very strong. www.eschaco.com · economia.ig.com.br · www.nsctotal.com.br
[● 5 SOURCES] There is a near 100% probability that El Niño will persist until February 2027. www.tiempofueguino.com · theglobalfilipinomagazine.com · pacific.scoop.co.nz · see.mv · divany.hu
[● 2 SOURCES] The autumn of 2026 in Ushuaia was the second warmest in the last 50 years. www.tiempofueguino.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] Water storage in Sri Lanka's major reservoirs has dropped to roughly 50% of total capacity. srilankachronicle.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) forecasts a rainfall reduction of between 40% and 80% by the end of November. cebudailynews.inquirer.net
[○ 1 SOURCE] The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) indicates that El Niño's influence on the UAE could extend into April 2027. theglobalfilipinomagazine.com
[● 7 SOURCES] The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports that El Niño is established and is expected to intensify to a very strong level toward the end of 2026. theglobalfilipinomagazine.com · www.tiempofueguino.com · pacific.scoop.co.nz · see.mv · economia.ig.com.br · +2 more
[● 2 SOURCES] NOAA has raised the probability of a 'very strong' El Niño during the October-December 2026 period to over 90%. economia.ig.com.br · www.nsctotal.com.br
[○ 1 SOURCE] The Maldives is expected to face its most severe El Niño impacts in November. see.mv
[○ 1 SOURCE] The National Meteorological Service (SMN) reports a 100% probability that El Niño will persist through the September-November quarter. www.eschaco.com