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El Niño intensifies with high probability of historic strength
The El Niño climate pattern is intensifying, with NOAA reporting a 95% chance of very strong conditions between September and December. There is also a 75% probability that the phenomenon could reach historic levels, potentially becoming the strongest recorded since 1950.
In South America, particularly in southern Brazil and states like Santa Catarina, the phenomenon is expected to bring increased rainfall, higher temperatures, and a heightened risk of floods, landslides, and storms. The event may persist through the autumn of 2027.
In Mexico, specialists from UNAM warn that the strengthening could trigger intense hurricanes in the Pacific, severe cold fronts, and drought conditions in central and southern regions. Meanwhile, Southern California faces a higher likelihood of wetter, stormier winters, including risks of flash floods and debris flows.
Globally, the impacts vary: Australia, Indonesia, and parts of South Africa are likely to experience drier than average conditions, while Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay, and East African nations may see increased rainfall. Experts note that record ocean warmth could contribute to 2027 being one of the warmest years on record.
Entities
NOAA · Pacific Ocean · Santa Catarina · UNAM · WMO
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] There is a 75% chance of El Niño reaching historic intensity, the highest since 1950. portalbnu.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] UNAM specialists warn that El Niño strengthening could lead to intense hurricanes and severe cold fronts in Mexico. codigoqro.mx
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The WMO warns that a strong El Niño could increase the risk of extreme weather into the new year. www.theweather.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] NOAA projects a 96% probability that El Niño will persist from December 2026 to February 2027. ndmais.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] El Niño increases the likelihood of wetter and stormier winters in Southern California. www.hometownstation.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] NOAA reports a 95% chance of very strong El Niño intensity between September and December. portalbnu.com.br