El Niño phenomenon projected to reach historic intensity

The El Niño phenomenon is strengthening and is projected to reach its highest intensity since 1950 between late 2026 and early 2027. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 95% probability that the phenomenon will reach a ‘very strong’ intensity between September and December.

In Brazil, meteorological agencies including INMET and INPE predict significant regional variations. The South region, particularly Rio Grande do Sul, faces above-average rainfall and risks of flooding. Conversely, the North and Northeast regions, along with parts of the Center-West and Southeast, are expected to experience below-average rainfall, increasing the risk of extreme drought and wildfires.

Temperatures are expected to remain above average across most of the country. These climatic shifts pose risks to water security, agriculture, energy generation, and economic stability. Recent data from Cemaden indicates an increasing number of municipalities facing extreme drought conditions.