El Niño intensifies with 95% chance of very strong event in 2026

El Niño climate change drought extreme weather water scarcity

The El Niño climate phenomenon is intensifying, with NOAA raising the probability of a very strong event occurring between October and December 2026 to 95%. There is also a 70% chance it could become the strongest event recorded since 1950, potentially surpassing the 1982-1983 record.

In South America, the impacts are already being felt. Brazil is experiencing intense rainfall and extreme winds in the south, alongside drought and water scarcity in the Amazon and northeast regions. In Peru, the government has declared a 60-day state of emergency in 607 districts across 16 regions to mitigate risks to food security and agriculture caused by drought. Additionally, the Senamhi has warned of snow, hail, and rain in the high Andean regions of Ayacucho.

In Bolivia, authorities have issued a preventive red alert in La Paz due to reduced water reserves, though officials state that the water supply is guaranteed until early 2027. The country is facing unusually high temperatures and severe drought conditions, particularly in the Amazonian and Andean regions, affecting agricultural production.

Entities

Bolivia · Brazil · CENEPRED · El Niño · El Niño · Keiko Fujimori · NOAA · Peru · Senamhi

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.

[● 5 SOURCES] Over 9.3 million people are at very high risk of floods and landslides related to El Niño. www.in.gr · www.newsbomb.gr · www.capital.gr · www.newsbeast.gr
[● 8 SOURCES] The El Niño phenomenon is expected to intensify in the coming months. www.in.gr · www.newsbomb.gr · www.capital.gr · www.newsbeast.gr · thefaq.gr · +3 more
[● 6 SOURCES] The emergency measure is intended to protect food security due to high drought risks. www.in.gr · www.newsbomb.gr · www.capital.gr · www.newsbeast.gr · www.parapolitika.gr
[● 6 SOURCES] President Keiko Fujimori announced the creation of a special committee to accelerate preventive actions. www.in.gr · www.newsbomb.gr · www.capital.gr · www.newsbeast.gr · calle56.com
[● 5 SOURCES] In 2023, El Niño-related floods and landslides caused 99 deaths in Peru. www.in.gr · www.capital.gr · www.newsbeast.gr · www.newsbomb.gr
[● 5 SOURCES] The state of emergency covers over one-third of the country's approximately 1,800 municipalities. www.in.gr · www.newsbomb.gr · www.capital.gr · www.newsbeast.gr
[○ 1 SOURCE] Gabriel Pari, Secretary of Mother Earth for La Paz, states water supply is guaranteed until early 2027. lapatria.bo
[○ 1 SOURCE] The utility company Epsas reports water supply is secured regardless of upcoming rainfall. lapatria.bo
[● 2 SOURCES] The La Paz municipality has declared a preventive red alert due to reduced water reserves. www.telesurtv.net · www.noticias24hrs.com.ve
[● 2 SOURCES] Bolivia is experiencing unusually high temperatures and severe drought conditions linked to El Niño. www.telesurtv.net · www.noticias24hrs.com.ve
[● 3 SOURCES] Brazil is already experiencing the effects of El Niño, including intense rain in the south and drought in the Amazon and northeast. noticiasargentinas.com · eldigitalneuquen.com.ar · entreriosya.com.ar
[○ 1 SOURCE] In Peru, there is a 43% chance of a strong El Niño Costero and a 41% chance of an extraordinary event during the 2026-2027 summer. larepublica.pe