El Niño threatens global coffee and cocoa markets

The threat of El Niño is creating volatility in the global coffee and cocoa markets. While the World Bank's beverage index fell by one-third in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the previous year, recent price surges suggest a return to instability.

Arabica coffee prices recently reached a six-and-a-half-month high following delays in the 2026-2027 Brazilian harvest. Similarly, cocoa prices rose above $6,300 per ton in early September due to flooding affecting harvests in Ghana and Ivory Coast.

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center estimates a greater than 90% probability that El Niño will reach very strong intensity during the 2026-2027 autumn and winter. This poses a significant risk to tropical crops like coffee and cocoa, which are geographically concentrated and highly sensitive to climate shifts.