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El Niño strengthens with potential for historic intensity and global weather impacts
Meteorologists and agencies like NOAA are tracking a strengthening El Niño phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific, which could become one of the most intense on record. There is a 69% probability that this event will be the strongest since 1950, with a 97% chance of persisting into early 2027. Projections suggest the phenomenon may reach a 'very strong' category between October and December 2026.
The climate impact is expected to be widespread. In Cuba, the Institute of Meteorology (Insmet) warns of increased temperatures and drought, alongside a 40% chance of being directly hit by a hurricane and a 75% chance of a tropical storm impact before November 30. While the Atlantic cyclone season may be less active, up to 11 tropical cyclones are expected globally.
In Brazil, the phenomenon poses risks of extreme rainfall in the South and drought in the North and Northeast, potentially impacting agriculture and food prices. In Mexico, it is expected to alter temperature and precipitation patterns. In Europe, while the influence is less direct, it may contribute to higher temperatures in the south and affect atmospheric circulation.
Entities
Brazil · Climate Prediction Center · Colin McCarthy · Copernicus Climate Change Service · Cuba · El Niño · Enfen · Eric Webb · Insmet · Institute of Meteorology of Cuba · NASA · NOAA
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] A transition toward neutral ocean conditions is expected starting in May 2027. lodicelagente.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Precipitation in the northern coast will range from normal to above normal, with localized light to moderate rain starting in November. lodicelagente.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The southeastern highlands are expected to experience below-normal rainfall. lodicelagente.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Air temperatures for the August-October quarter are expected to be significantly above normal along the entire coast. lodicelagente.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The El Niño Costero phenomenon is projected to remain between strong and extraordinary in magnitude until the summer of 2027. lodicelagente.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] There is a 43% probability of a strong magnitude and a 41% probability of an extraordinary magnitude for the Niño 1+2 region during the 2026-2027 summer. lodicelagente.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] El Niño may cause drought in the Matopiba region and the North of Brazil. exame.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The Situation Room is monitoring El Niño to prepare for drought, heavy rain, and heat across different regions. jornalgrandebahia.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The chance of a very strong El Niño between October and December is 95%. exame.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] There is a 69% probability that the El Niño event will be among the most intense recorded since 1950. exame.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The probability of El Niño reaching 'very strong' intensity between September and November is 93%. exame.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The South of Brazil is expected to experience above-average rainfall. exame.com