El Niño phenomenon projected to reach record intensity in 2026-2027

El Niño climate change ocean warming extreme weather ENSO

A powerful El Niño phenomenon is developing in the tropical Pacific, with scientists warning it could become one of the strongest events in recorded history. NOAA reports a 95% probability that the event will be 'very strong,' with sea surface temperatures exceeding 2°C above average between October and December 2026.

Climate analysts suggest the event may peak in November or December 2026, potentially pushing global temperatures toward 2°C above pre-industrial levels in early 2027. The warming is already impacting marine ecosystems; NASA has detected a significant drop in chlorophyll concentrations in the central Pacific, signaling a decline in phytoplankton that could disrupt global fisheries.

Regional impacts are expected to be severe. In South America, the El Niño Costero is projected to maintain strong to extraordinary magnitudes through the summer of 2027. Brazil is already experiencing effects, including intense rainfall in the south and drought conditions in the Amazon and Northeast. In the United States, the phenomenon is expected to bring a warmer, wetter winter to the southern regions and increased storm activity on the East Coast.

Entities

Colin McCarthy · Copernicus Climate Change Service · Enfen · NASA · NOAA · Pacific Ocean

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.

[○ 1 SOURCE] A transition toward neutral ocean conditions is expected starting in May 2027. lodicelagente.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] Precipitation in the northern coast will range from normal to above normal, with localized light to moderate rain starting in November. lodicelagente.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] The southeastern highlands are expected to experience below-normal rainfall. lodicelagente.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] Air temperatures for the August-October quarter are expected to be significantly above normal along the entire coast. lodicelagente.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] The El Niño Costero phenomenon is projected to remain between strong and extraordinary in magnitude until the summer of 2027. lodicelagente.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] There is a 43% probability of a strong magnitude and a 41% probability of an extraordinary magnitude for the Niño 1+2 region during the 2026-2027 summer. lodicelagente.com
[● 2 SOURCES] The probability of a very strong El Niño (exceeding 2°C) between October and December has increased to 95%. diarioelsolcusco.pe · www.tiempo.com
[● 2 SOURCES] There is a 69% probability that 2026 will be the hottest year on record. www.gazetepencere.com · diarioelsolcusco.pe
[○ 1 SOURCE] Brazil is experiencing El Niño effects, including intense rain in the south and drought in the Amazon and Northeast. www.surenio.com.ar
[● 2 SOURCES] The El Niño phenomenon is expected to peak around November or December 2026. english.mathrubhumi.com · www.news18.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] Satellite images show a marked drop in chlorophyll concentrations in the central Pacific due to El Niño warming. www.meteored.com.ar