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El Niño intensifies with 90% chance of becoming 'very strong
The El Niño phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific is intensifying, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reporting a greater than 90% probability that the current episode will become 'very strong' during the 2026-2027 autumn and winter.
In the Niño 3.4 monitoring region, sea surface temperature anomalies reached +2°C in September, placing the event at the threshold of a 'very strong' classification. Some localized areas have recorded even higher anomalies, with certain pockets reaching between +4°C and +5°C, and subsurface temperatures exceeding normal levels by as much as 8°C.
Meteorological agencies, including the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UK Met Office, suggest the phenomenon could persist until at least the March to May 2027 quarter. There is a 75% chance that this event will exceed the intensity of previous El Niño episodes recorded since 1950. Current data indicates the 2026 event is comparable in intensity to the historic 1997 episode.
While the warming in the Pacific can influence global atmospheric circulation, experts caution that it does not guarantee specific regional weather patterns, such as exact snowfall amounts in Europe or the Balkans, due to the complex nature of regional climate interactions.
Entities
NOAA · NOAA Climate Prediction Center · National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration · Niño 3.4 region · Pacific Ocean · World Meteorological Organization
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 3 SOURCES] There is a 75% chance that this El Niño will exceed the intensity of previous episodes recorded since 1950. sbtnews.sbt.com.br · panoptikum.mk · lider.mk
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The El Niño phenomenon may persist until at least the March to May 2027 quarter. sbtnews.sbt.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The 2026 El Niño event is currently comparable in intensity to the 1997 event. climainfo.org.br
- [● 3 SOURCES] The sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region reached +2°C in September. sbtnews.sbt.com.br · climainfo.org.br · elciudadanoweb.com
- [● 5 SOURCES] There is a greater than 90% probability that the current El Niño episode will become 'very strong' during the 2026-2027 autumn and winter. actualite.lachainemeteo.com · sbtnews.sbt.com.br · elciudadanoweb.com · panoptikum.mk · lider.mk
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Temperature anomalies in the Niño 1+2 region have reached 3.7°C. sbtnews.sbt.com.br