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Super El Niño threatens 451,000 lives and global agriculture FAST-MOVING
A powerful “Super El Niño” phenomenon is projected to persist through early 2027, causing significant global disruptions. Scientists from the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago estimate that the resulting extreme heat could cause up to 451,000 additional deaths worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027. The most severe impacts are expected in the Global South, particularly in Africa’s Sahel region, Nigeria, Indonesia, India, and Brazil.
In Australia, researchers predict approximately 260 additional heat-related deaths, with New South Wales expected to face the highest toll. The phenomenon is also expected to increase the frequency of extremely hot days by 44 percent and raise average land temperatures by roughly 1.2 degrees Celsius.
Regional impacts vary significantly. In South America, the phenomenon threatens agricultural yields, such as soy and corn in Argentina, and poses risks of flooding in the Paraná River basin, which could impact the Yacyretá hydroelectric plant. In Central America, El Salvador faces severe drought and threats to food security, with significant impacts on maize and bean production expected between January and April 2027. In Peru, the convergence of coastal and global El Niño events is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the northern coast while affecting hydroelectric power generation due to changing precipitation patterns.
Entities
Climate Impact Lab · NOAA · National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration · Pacific Ocean · Pan American Health Organization · Piura · University of Chicago · World Meteorological Organization · Yacyretá Hydroelectric Plant
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 6 SOURCES] The current El Niño could cause up to 451,000 additional heat-related deaths globally by the end of February. cnnportugal.iol.pt · english.elpais.com · ac24horas.com · surinamenieuws.nl · tickernews.co · +1 more
- [● 4 SOURCES] There is a nearly 100% probability that the phenomenon will persist until February 2027. www.entornointeligente.com · infobonaerenses.com.ar · sapo.pt · surinamenieuws.nl
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The phenomenon increases risks of floods, displacements, and waterborne or vector-borne diseases in Latin America. www.cronica.com.ar
- [● 2 SOURCES] The WMO expects El Niño to reach very strong intensity by the end of 2026. www.entornointeligente.com · english.elpais.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The Niño 3.4 region reached a record daily temperature anomaly of +3.04°C on September 20. www.nsctotal.com.br
- [● 3 SOURCES] The Sahel region in Africa is projected to face approximately 66,800 additional deaths. cnnportugal.iol.pt · english.elpais.com · surinamenieuws.nl
- [● 2 SOURCES] Nigeria is projected to experience approximately 31,400 additional heat-related deaths. surinamenieuws.nl · tickernews.co
- [● 2 SOURCES] Australia could see 260 additional heat-related deaths between September and February. internewscast.com · tickernews.co
- [● 3 SOURCES] Average land temperatures could rise by approximately 1.2 degrees Celsius during the period. surinamenieuws.nl · internewscast.com · ac24horas.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] There is a 75 percent chance of a historic El Niño between October and December. surinamenieuws.nl
- [● 3 SOURCES] An estimated 451,000 additional deaths could occur globally during the first nine months of the super El Niño. surinamenieuws.nl · internewscast.com · tickernews.co
- [● 3 SOURCES] The number of extremely hot days is expected to increase by 44 percent. surinamenieuws.nl · internewscast.com · tickernews.co