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Brazil agriculture faces revenue decline despite rising grain harvest
Brazil's agricultural sector faces a complex outlook for 2026. While the 11th Grain Harvest Survey by Conab predicts a 2.4% increase in the 2025/26 grain harvest to 360.8 million tons, this physical growth may not translate into financial stability for producers.
Falling agricultural prices combined with high operational costs are projected to cause a R$ 66 billion reduction in gross revenue for rural properties in 2026. Consequently, the Ministry of Agriculture and Pecuária estimates the agricultural Gross Production Value (VBP) will reach R$ 1.398 trillion, representing a 4.5% contraction compared to 2025.
Climate risks, specifically a potentially strong El Niño, pose significant threats. A strong El Niño could increase the IPCA by 0.83 percentage points and drive up prices for in natura foods by up to 19.9% within 12 months. Additionally, the soy area in Brazil is expected to see its slowest growth rate in 20 years during the 2026/27 harvest cycle.
Entities
Brazil · Conab · El Niño · Fortunceres S.A. · Institute of Agribusiness · Isan Rezende · JBS S/A · Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock · Ministério da Agricultura e Pecuária · NOAA · National Supply Company · Paraguay
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 6 SOURCES] The grain harvest for the 2025/26 cycle is predicted to reach 360.8 million tons. bastidoresdopoder.com.br · es1.com.br · www.expressaonoticias.com.br · minutomt.com.br · leiagora.com.br · +1 more
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The Brazilian animal feed industry produced 22.6 million tons in the first quarter of 2026.
- [● 4 SOURCES] A strong El Niño could add approximately 0.83 percentage points to the IPCA inflation index. rdmonline.com.br · bpmoney.com.br
- [● 6 SOURCES] The agricultural Gross Production Value (VBP) is projected to reach R$ 1.398 trillion in 2026. bastidoresdopoder.com.br · es1.com.br · www.expressaonoticias.com.br · minutomt.com.br · leiagora.com.br · +1 more
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Soybean area in Brazil is projected to grow at its slowest rate in 20 years during the 2026/27 harvest. agrimidia.com.br
- [● 4 SOURCES] A strong El Niño could increase in natura food prices by up to 19.9% over 12 months. rdmonline.com.br · bpmoney.com.br
- [● 6 SOURCES] The projected VBP for 2026 represents a 4.5% decrease compared to 2025. bastidoresdopoder.com.br · es1.com.br · www.expressaonoticias.com.br · minutomt.com.br · leiagora.com.br · +1 more
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Bovine semen sales grew by 12.4% in the first half of 2026. www.cliquef5.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The Brazilian animal feed industry produced 22.6 million tons of feed in the first quarter of 2026.
- [● 6 SOURCES] The agricultural Gross Production Value (VBP) is estimated to reach R$ 1.398 trillion in 2026. bastidoresdopoder.com.br · es1.com.br · www.expressaonoticias.com.br · minutomt.com.br · leiagora.com.br · +1 more
- [● 6 SOURCES] The VBP is projected to retract by 4.5% compared to 2025. bastidoresdopoder.com.br · es1.com.br · www.expressaonoticias.com.br · minutomt.com.br · leiagora.com.br · +1 more
- [● 4 SOURCES] A strong El Niño could add approximately 0.83 percentage points to the IPCA. rdmonline.com.br · bpmoney.com.br