Super El Niño 2026‑2027 poised to become strongest in 150 years, prompting global climate and economic risks

Super El Niño sea‑surface temperature anomaly African economic damages global food price rise New Zealand coastal risk

Scientists forecast that the 2026‑2027 El Niño event could become the strongest on record in the past 150 years, with a 90 % probability of surpassing previous extremes. NOAA estimates an 81 % chance of a very strong El Niño between October and December 2026, and climate models project a sea‑surface temperature anomaly of about +3.6 °C above average.

The phenomenon is expected to reshape weather worldwide: in New Zealand it should reduce north‑easterly storms that damage the coast but increase westerly winds that dry dunes, prompting local spit‑protection efforts. In Africa, the African Development Bank warns that damages could reach $20 billion, threatening food security, water supplies and public finances, and potentially triggering mass migration. Global food prices may rise by roughly 15.8 % and the heat surge could make 2027 the hottest year on record.

These projections highlight heightened risks of heatwaves, droughts, intense rainfall, wildfires and floods across continents, underscoring urgent climate‑adaptation needs.

Entities: African Development Bank · African Development Bank (AfDB) · Berkeley Earth · El Niño (2026‑27 event) · National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) · New Zealand · Super El Niño (2026‑2027) · World Meteorological Organization · World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.

[● 3 SOURCES] A strong El Niño can trigger worldwide extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, floods, storms and wildfires. (Multiple climate agencies and analysts)
[○ 1 SOURCE] The World Meteorological Organization forecasted that the current El Niño will become rapidly stronger in the coming months. (WMO)
[● 3 SOURCES] The African Development Bank estimates damages in Africa could reach up to $20 billion and trigger mass migration. (African Development Bank (AfDB))
[● 2 SOURCES] There is a 90 % probability that this El Niño will become the strongest in roughly 150 years of observations. (Berkeley Earth / scientists)
[● 3 SOURCES] Analysts project global food prices could rise by about 15.8 % due to a strong El Niño. (Goldman Sachs analysis cited by media)
[● 2 SOURCES] The 2026 El Niño could produce a sea‑surface temperature anomaly of about +3.6 °C above average. (climate model projections)
[● 2 SOURCES] NOAA assigned an 81 % chance of a very strong El Niño between October and December 2026. (NOAA)
[○ 1 SOURCE] In New Zealand the El Niño is expected to reduce north‑easterly storm risk but increase westerly winds that may erode coastal spits. (Dr Phil McDermott, former Massey professor)
[○ 1 SOURCE] In New Zealand the El Niño is expected to reduce north‑easterly storms but increase westerly winds, affecting coastal spit protection efforts. (Dr Phil McDermott, former Massey professor)
[● 3 SOURCES] The 2026‑2027 El Niño could make 2027 the hottest year on record worldwide. (climate scientists)