Super El Nino intensifies, threatening global weather and Thai rice production

The 2026 El Nino phenomenon is intensifying at an unusual rate in the Pacific Ocean, potentially becoming the strongest event ever recorded. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the phenomenon emerged in early June. In the first week of August, sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific were 2.6°C above average, placing the event well within the ‘Super El Nino’ threshold of 2°C.

Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth noted that the current development speed and intensity are “extraordinarily unusual,” suggesting the event is moving into uncharted territory. This rapid warming could trigger global shifts in temperature and rainfall, increasing the risk of widespread wildfires.

The intensifying weather patterns pose a severe threat to Southeast Asian agriculture. In Thailand, a major global rice exporter, a severe Super El Nino could reduce paddy production by approximately 5.4 million tons, a 15% decrease. Analysts from Krungthai Bank estimate that such a scenario could result in economic damages of roughly 62 billion baht (approximately $1.84 billion) to Thailand's agricultural and manufacturing sectors.