Aon 2027 Global Medical Trend Rates projections

Aon plc has released its 2027 Global Medical Trend Rates Report, detailing projected shifts in healthcare spending across various regions.

In the Asia Pacific (APAC) region, medical cost growth is expected to slow to 9.7% in 2027 from 11.3% in 2026, though this remains significantly higher than the APAC general inflation forecast of 2.5%. This deceleration is largely attributed to projected decreases in China and India. Globally, the medical trend rate is projected to decrease from 9.8% in 2026 to 9.0% in 2027.

In Mexico, corporate medical plan costs are projected to increase by 13.7% in 2027, a moderation from the 14.8% trend anticipated for 2026. Mexico is expected to help contain regional growth in Latin America and the Caribbean, with a projected medical trend 1.13 percentage points lower than Brazil’s.

On a global scale, the report identifies cardiovascular disease, ENT/lung disorders, and cancer as primary drivers of medical claims. Additionally, catastrophic and complex claims—defined as claims of $100,000 or more—have seen a 12.9% year-over-year increase, while specialty pharmacy costs continue to be a dominant driver of growth.