Demographic and economic trends in Rio Grande do Norte

Rio Grande do Norte is experiencing contrasting demographic and economic trends. Recent IBGE estimates for 2026 indicate a population decline of 8,501 people compared to 2025, with 57 of the state’s 167 municipalities, including the capital Natal, reporting fewer inhabitants. This demographic shift is reflected in the electorate, where the young voter base (ages 16 to 24) has decreased by 7.6% since 2022, while the population of voters over 80 has grown by 32.3%. Economically, the formal labor market saw a modest increase of 999 jobs in July 2026, largely driven by melon cultivation in the agricultural sector.

In contrast to population declines, the tourism and service sectors are showing robust growth. Data from the Rio Grande do Norte Tourism Intelligence System (Sírio) and Emprotur shows that average tourist spending increased by 38.4% between January and July 2026 compared to the previous year, rising from R$ 446.80 to R$ 620.40. While domestic visitor spending grew by 6.8%, the overall average suggests significant contributions from international markets, particularly Argentinians and Portuguese.

Specific indicators for July 2026 show tourism activity rose 9.9% compared to June, outperforming the national growth rate of 2.7%. On an annual basis, tourism activity increased by 11.4% compared to July 2025, while tourism revenue saw a substantial surge of 24.3%. Additionally, the state's service sector grew by 3.9% in July relative to the previous month. Air connectivity is also expanding, with Azul Linhas Aéreas resuming twice-weekly flights between Mossoró and Recife using 70-passenger ATR aircraft, supported by state tax incentives on aviation kerosene.