Dutch governing coalition political instability

The Dutch governing coalition is facing significant political pressure following a decline in voter support. Recent polling indicates the three main government parties have collectively lost approximately 40% of their voter base, representing a loss of 27 seats compared to their previous standing.

Specific shifts include the VVD losing voters to JA21, D66 losing voters to PRO, and the CDA seeing declines toward 50PLUS and JA21. Additionally, PVV voters are reportedly moving toward FVD and JA21. The VVD has specifically faced its lowest liberal score in eighteen years.

One year after the last Tweede Kamer elections, new polling from Peilingwijzer suggests the minority coalition, comprising D66, VVD, and CDA, is projected to hold fewer than one third of the parliamentary seats. D66, led by Prime Minister Jetten, faces a projected drop of 11 seats, potentially leaving the party with only 13 to 17 seats. The VVD is projected to lose 6 seats, falling to between 14 and 18, while the CDA is expected to lose 4 seats, resulting in 12 to 16 seats.

In contrast, the opposition party PRO remains the largest in the polls with 25 to 31 seats, benefiting from voter dissatisfaction. While the PVV is also seeing a decline to 18 to 23 seats, parties such as JA21 and Forum for Democracy are seeing increases in support. Internal dissatisfaction is noted within the VVD, where only 28 percent of voters support leader Dilan Yesilgöz remaining as the party leader. Yesilgöz received the lowest approval rating among major political leaders, with a score of 3.7.