Global cocoa and coffee commodity price increases

Rising production costs and supply chain dynamics are driving up prices for consumer goods such as chocolate and coffee. In Japan, chocolate retail prices nearly doubled between January 2020 and July 2025, rising from 203 yen to 402 yen per 100 grams. This surge is attributed to soaring cacao bean costs caused by disease and adverse weather in West Africa, alongside rising expenses for sugar, dairy, energy, and logistics. The weak yen has further increased import costs, leading to “shrinkflation” where product weights are reduced to maintain price points.

In the broader commodity market, coffee prices remain high because global consumption continues to outpace production. Despite improved harvests in Brazil, Vietnam, and Indonesia, supply for the 2024/2025 season fell short of demand by approximately 6.3 million bags. To manage costs, chocolate manufacturers are seeking various measures, and consumers are being advised to monitor ingredient lists to distinguish high-quality products from those using cheaper vegetable fats.