Hungarian business and consumer confidence trends

Business optimism in Hungary has moderated following a post-election peak, though confidence levels remain high. The K&H corporate growth index macroeconomic sub-index corrected from a historical high of 17 points to 10 points, representing the second-highest level in the survey’s 12-year history.

Large corporations with annual revenues exceeding 10 billion HUF report the strongest growth prospects, with approximately 40 percent expecting significant revenue increases over the coming year. While the service sector remains positive for both large enterprises and SMEs, the trade sector experienced a 12-point decline in its macro indicator compared to the previous quarter. Operational drivers have shifted, as exchange rate fluctuations, supplier prices, and domestic customers have overtaken government economic policy in importance.

Recent data indicates a divergence between business and consumer sentiment. In September, the GKI business cycle index rose by one point, signaling a slight improvement in the business climate as most sectors, including industry and trade, reported gains. However, the GKI Consumer Confidence Index stagnated during the same period.

By October, consumer sentiment showed further decline, with the consumer confidence index falling by 2 points from the previous month and 8 points since its July peak. Optimism regarding the economic outlook for the next twelve months dropped by 6 points. Conversely, business confidence has maintained a gradual upward trend since July 2025, with the industrial sector emerging as the most optimistic segment, even as the overall composite index remained stagnant compared to September.