Middle East geopolitical impact on global tourism

Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty in the Middle East caused disruptions to international travel patterns in 2026. VisitBritain reported that instability in the region slowed Australian travel bookings to the United Kingdom, as approximately half of connecting flight routes from Australia pass through the Middle East.

Despite these disruptions, tourism experts anticipate a strong recovery. The ATM Travel Trends 2026 report, produced by Arabian Travel Market in association with Tourism Economics, forecasts that international visitor spending in the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia (MENASA) region will increase by 57% to reach $408 billion by 2030. This represents a projected increase of $116 billion in spending. By 2030, the region is anticipated to receive 316 million international arrivals.

While 2026 saw volatility, travel in the MENASA region is expected to grow by 17% in 2027, outpacing the projected global growth rate. Industry analysts suggest this expansion is driven by structural factors such as rising prosperity, favorable demographics, and capacity investments rather than a mere cyclical rebound. Dave Goodger of Tourism Economics noted that growth is expected to expand on a structural basis. Long-haul markets are expected to play an increasingly vital role, particularly China, where leisure nights by Chinese visitors to the Middle East are forecast to increase by 160% by 2030. In the United Kingdom, VisitBritain expects Australian visitor spending to reach record levels by 2027, supported by increased airline capacity from carriers including Emirates, British Airways, and Qantas.