North African migration and regional cooperation

Migration patterns in North Africa have undergone significant shifts due to increased security measures and enhanced cooperation with the European Union. In Tunisia, arrivals in Italy have seen a substantial decline, dropping from nearly 100,000 in 2023 to fewer than 20,000 in 2024, a trend that has continued through 2026. This reduction is linked to reinforced coastal surveillance and the dismantling of migrant camps. However, observers note that while repression has decreased arrivals in certain areas, it may be “compressing and displacing migration routes rather than eliminating them.”

Libya has increasingly become a confinement zone for migrants, acting as a buffer for northern Mediterranean shores due to internal political divisions and European security policies. While international bodies deny official plans for permanent settlement, indicators suggest the country is absorbing hundreds of thousands of refugees.

Parallel to these security dynamics, regional actors are pursuing expanded economic cooperation. Tunisia and Greece have engaged in discussions to develop partnerships in renewable energy, agriculture, and transport. Meanwhile, in Libya, the Misrata Free Zone has held talks with the Italian Ambassador to explore investment opportunities and utilize the zone as a gateway for Italian companies to access African markets.