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2 clusters · 33 sources · 10 days · First seen · Last updated

Pará gubernatorial and Senate elections

Overview

Polling data for the 2026 elections in Pará continues to show a competitive landscape for the governorship and the Senate.

In the gubernatorial race, Hana Ghassan (MDB) maintains her lead. Recent reports from RealTime Big Data and Inteligov/EXAME indicate that Ghassan’s share of valid votes fluctuates between 33% and 52% depending on the methodology used. New data from Real Time Big Data shows Ghassan holding 44% of intended votes in a stimulated scenario, while Daniel Santos (Podemos) follows with 37%. When considering only valid votes, Ghassan’s lead increases to 52%, a margin that potentially secures a first-round victory.

Regarding the Senate race, former governor Helder Barbalho (MDB) previously led with 25% of intended votes. A Quaest poll confirms Barbalho leading with 25%. Recent Real Time Big Data results indicate Barbalho holds a 10-point lead with 25% of the vote. The contest for the state’s second Senate seat remains a focal point, with candidates Éder Mauro (PL), Chicão (União), and Zequinha Marinho (Podemos) previously described as being in a technical tie.

Entities

Hana Ghassan · Pará · Daniel Santos · Raquel Lyra · Humberto Costa

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

Coverage disagrees

Sources make claims that cannot both be true. CLSTR reports the disagreement; it does not decide who is right.

  • "Hana Ghassan leads the Pará gubernatorial race with 44% of intended votes in a Real Time Big Data poll." paraonline.com.br · www.cnnbrasil.com.br · tnonline.uol.com.br

    vs

    "Hana Ghassan reaches 52% of valid votes in the Pará gubernatorial poll." paraonline.com.br

    Hana Ghassan cannot have both 44% of intended votes and 52% of valid votes in the same poll context.

  • "Hana Ghassan leads the Pará gubernatorial race with 44% of valid votes in a Real Time Big Data poll." paraonline.com.br · www.cnnbrasil.com.br · tnonline.uol.com.br

    vs

    "Hana Ghassan leads the Pará gubernatorial race with 44% of intended votes in a Real Time Big Data poll." paraonline.com.br · www.cnnbrasil.com.br · tnonline.uol.com.br

    The claims provide different percentages (44% vs 44%) for different metrics (intended votes vs valid votes) which, while potentially compatible, represent different statistical claims regarding the 44

  • "In a Real Time Big Data poll, João Campos has 45% and Raquel Lyra has 43% for the Pernambuco governorship." horadopovo.com.br

    vs

    "In a simulated second round for the Pernambuco governorship, João Campos leads Raquel Lyra with 46% to 45%." horadopovo.com.br

    The Real Time Big Data poll cannot show both a 46%-45% split and a 45%-43% split for the same race.

Timeline

  1. 1 day ago

    [POLITICS] 30 sources
    Pernambuco and Pará election polls show leading candidates

    Real Time Big Data polls show João Campos leading the Pernambuco gubernatorial race and Hana Ghassan holding a significant lead in the Pará gubernatorial contest.

  2. 11 days ago

    [POLITICS] 3 sources
    Hana Ghassan leads Pará gubernatorial race in new poll

    Hana Ghassan leads the Pará gubernatorial race with 43.17% in a new poll, proposing a transparent digital system for public health waiting lists.

Sources

ac24horas.com · amazoniaonline.com.br · apalavraonline.com.br · blogdapolo.com.br · blogdomagno.com.br · brasil247.com · caririligado.com.br · cartacapital.com.br · contilnetnoticias.com.br · diariodocentrodomundo.com.br · didigalvao.com.br · diegoemir.com · folhadoprogresso.com.br · gazetaweb.com · glaucioericeira.com.br · gp1.com.br · horadopovo.com.br · informatudodf.com.br · leiaja.com · netoweba.com.br · noticiacapital.com.br · oglobo.globo.com · ograndeabc.com.br · osul.com.br · ouricuriemfoco.com.br · paraonline.com.br · pautapb.com.br · plantao24horasnews.com.br · revistaforum.com.br · simoneduarte.com.br · tnonline.com.br · valor.globo.com · viagemegastronomia.com.br

This summary has been updated 8 times: see revision history