[CLSTR]
< Back to situations

Monitor this situation.

[SITUATION] · [ACTIVE] · [BUSINESS]

10 clusters · 28 sources · 83 days · First seen · Last updated

Guaraní strength impacts credit, real estate and agriculture

Overview

The Paraguayan guaraní has continued its strengthening trend against the U.S. dollar, reaching its strongest level since late 2018. By late August 2026, the exchange rate sat at approximately G. 5,990. The Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP) attributes this to robust economic drivers, including record soybean revenues. This appreciation has created significant sectoral pressures. In the real estate sector, Raúl Constantino of CAPADEI noted that while 90% of construction costs are local, many sales are in dollars, a mismatch that is eroding profit margins. In agriculture, the UGP, APPEC, and ARP have warned that the falling dollar reduces local currency income, offsetting gains from rising cattle prices and threatening international competitiveness. Consequently, the UGP has proposed that the BCP purchase foreign currency to inject liquidity and stabilize the rate. Recent data from the Asociación Rural del Paraguay (ARP) indicates the exchange rate shift resulted in a loss of approximately G. 2.06 trillion (USD 349 million) for livestock production between September 2025 and August 2026. Héctor Cristaldo, president of the UGP, noted that the depreciation has reduced income for productive, industrial, and export sectors by roughly 25% when converted to guaraníes. By October 2026, reports from Consus Service & Merchandising SA (CSM) indicated the guaraní had appreciated approximately 36% against the U.S. dollar over a 24-month period, moving from G. 7,820 in October 2024 to G. 5,735 by October 21, 2026. This trend is attributed to local factors such as a record harvest, a 25.7% increase in exports as of September, investment-grade ratings from Moody’s and S&P, and the placement of USD 2,100 million in guaraní-denominated bonds. Inflation remains below the BCP target, with general inflation at 1.7% in September.

Entities

Paraguay · Central Bank of Paraguay · Banco Central del Paraguay · Asociación Rural del Paraguay · Asociación Paraguaya de Productores y Exportadores de Carne

Timeline

  1. [BUSINESS] 2 sources
    Paraguayan Guaraní appreciates 36% against the US Dollar over two years

    The Paraguayan guaraní has appreciated nearly 36% against the US dollar over two years, driven by record harvests, increased exports, and significant guaraní-denominated bond issuances.

  2. [BUSINESS] 3 sources
    Paraguay production guilds seek dialogue over falling dollar value

    Paraguayan production guilds are meeting with the government to discuss the economic impact of a 25% drop in the dollar's value, which is squeezing export sectors and reducing state tax revenue.

  3. [BUSINESS] 5 sources
    Paraguayan producers demand BCP action amid falling US dollar

    Paraguayan agricultural and livestock producers are urging the Central Bank to intervene as the falling US dollar erodes profit margins and creates a mismatch between dollar-based export income and guaraní-paid

  4. [BUSINESS] 7 sources
    Paraguay central bank raises growth forecast amid currency concerns

    Paraguay's central bank raised its 2026 growth forecast to 5%, but producers warn that a strengthening guaraní is hurting export competitiveness and livestock profitability.

  5. [BUSINESS] 13 sources
    Paraguayan livestock sector warns of exchange rate impact

    The Paraguayan livestock sector warns that guaraní appreciation has cost the industry an estimated USD 349 million, while cattle market prices show signs of a gradual recovery.

  6. [BUSINESS] 2 sources
    Economic agents lower US dollar expectations in Paraguay and Argentina

    Economic agents in Paraguay and Argentina are lowering their US dollar exchange rate expectations for the end of the year, citing improved stability and market interventions.

  7. [BUSINESS] 2 sources
    Currency shifts impact real estate in Paraguay and exports in Uruguay

    Currency shifts in Paraguay and Uruguay are squeezing profit margins in real estate and reducing export competitiveness for the agricultural sector due to exchange rate imbalances.

  8. [BUSINESS] 5 sources
    Paraguay dollar-denominated credit and currency hedging grow

    Paraguay sees a 23.83% rise in dollar-denominated credit and a 30% increase in currency forward contracts as businesses hedge against exchange rate volatility.

  9. [BUSINESS] 3 sources
    Paraguay's guaraní reaches strongest level against dollar since 2018

    Paraguay's guaraní has hit its strongest level against the US dollar since 2018, driven by record soybean exports and strong total export receipts.

  10. [BUSINESS] 2 sources
    Argentina and Paraguay see currency shifts widening electronics price gaps across South America

    Currency shifts in South America are widening electronics price gaps, with Argentina’s prices far higher than Chile’s, while Paraguay’s strong guaraní lowers import costs but challenges exporters.

Sources

1000noticias.com.py · 3tres3.com · agrorural.com.py · caaguazunoticiasdigital.com.py · diarioparaguayo.com · elnacional.com.py · elprofesional.uy · eltrueno.com.py · epanews.cl · europesays.com · g5noticias.cl · hoy.com.do · paraguayfluvial.com · paraguayoindependiente.com · pediatricresearchjournal.com · perfil.com · portalfruticola.com · proceso.hn · rcc.com.py · revistaplus.com.py · riotimesonline.com · sitiosargentina.com.ar · sursantiago.com.ar · todoelcampo.com.uy · todologisticanews.com · ultimahora.com · ultimahora.com.py · valoragro.com.py

This summary has been updated 13 times: see revision history