Strait of Hormuz maritime security and VLCC rate crisis

A crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has significantly disrupted global crude oil shipping, particularly affecting Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) traffic. In the second quarter of 2026, Middle East VLCC liftings fell by 40%, prompting a shift toward alternative supply routes from regions such as Angola and Venezuela.

As security risks persist due to attacks on tankers and drone strikes, maritime operators have increasingly avoided the strait to mitigate operational and economic threats, including rising war insurance premiums. This avoidance has led to a sharp decline in vessel transits and a tightening of global tonnage. Consequently, VLCC charter rates have surged, driven by a trend toward long-haul voyages, such as shipments from the US Gulf to China, to meet energy demands.

By late August 2026, the impact on shipping patterns intensified. Data indicated that vessel transits through the strait dropped by 50% within a single 24-hour period, with no VLCCs or LNG carriers recorded during that window. This scarcity of available vessels, combined with declining on-water crude stocks in Asia, has propelled VLCC daily spot market rates to historic highs. According to the Baltic Exchange, daily earnings reached approximately $325,000, the highest level since 2008, while daily profits on the Ras Tanura-to-China route hit a record $603,000.

MB Shipbrokers reports that geopolitical disruptions have contributed to a decrease in global crude loadings of roughly 4 million barrels per day compared to last year. This decline is linked to reduced exports from Iran due to US sanctions, lower Russian exports following Ukrainian strikes, and restricted flows from Saudi Arabia due to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.