Kenyan political shifts and ODM internal divisions

In early October 2026, President William Ruto brokered a peace agreement in Mombasa between the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA). Ruto urged the two parties to cease public disputes and work together as part of a “broad-based government,” characterizing them as siblings united against a common opposition.

By mid-October, the political landscape shifted following the one-year anniversary of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s death. The ODM party experienced significant internal fragmentation regarding its leadership and its relationship with the Ruto administration. One faction, including Raila Junior and Dr. Oburu Oginga, advocates for continued cooperation with the government to pursue economic and institutional reforms. In contrast, a group including Winnie Odinga and Senator Edwin Sifuna opposes this partnership. This division has extended to the Odinga family, with Winnie Odinga aligning with the Linda Mwananchi movement while other family members maintain loyalty to the ODM. Leaders such as Siaya Governor James Orengo and Ruth Odinga have criticized the party leadership, alleging that UDA influence has compromised ODM’s core principles.

Recent developments indicate deepening instability. Tensions have escalated into public confrontations, such as Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi criticizing Ida Odinga, the late leader's widow, following her remarks regarding politicians who missed the anniversary commemorations. Furthermore, the removal of Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, a prominent opponent of government cooperation, has become a central flashpoint. Analysts suggest Odinga’s death created a power vacuum, as the party struggles to navigate its identity without his singular authority.