Solar activity and geomagnetic conditions

Solar activity transitioned from a period of low activity and stable conditions in early August to increased activity by mid-August.

Initially, solar observations showed low activity with only occasional B-class and a single C1.6 flare. During this period, solar wind speeds were in a slow regime and the solar-flux index dropped below 100, leading to a quiet geomagnetic environment with Kp values between 1 and 3. These conditions supported stable HF radio propagation.

By mid-August, increased activity was projected to impact Earth. A coronal mass ejection (CME) leaving the Sun on August 14 was expected to reach Earth between August 17 and 19, with forecasts ranging from G1 (minor) to G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. Additionally, faster solar wind from a coronal hole was expected to contribute to heightened geomagnetic activity starting August 18. While these events could potentially disrupt satellite communications and power grids, experts noted that the probability of a severe eruption remained low at approximately 1 percent. The increased activity was also expected to enhance the visibility of the Aurora Borealis.