Poland defence industry expansion and export growth

In July 2026, Poland announced a trilateral plan with the United States and Ukraine to produce Patriot PAC-3 intercept missiles and host a regional maintenance hub on Polish soil to secure ammunition supplies for Ukraine and reinforce NATO’s eastern flank.

Data from the UN Conventional Weapons Register confirms a significant surge in Polish arms exports during 2025. The primary driver was the sale of 345 Piorun portable air-defence missile sets, with Lithuania purchasing the largest share (202 units), followed by Belgium, Norway, Estonia, and Sweden. Poland also supplied Ukraine with 120 armoured vehicles, 296 drones, Leopard 2A4 tanks, and howitzers. Other notable markets included Guatemala, the United States, Armenia, Indonesia, Romania, Canada, and the United Arab Emirates. A major €3 billion contract with Sweden, signed in September 2025, saw deliveries begin in December.

Regarding military aid, Polish officials are considering transferring an additional batch of PAC-3 missiles to Ukraine. However, Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk noted that the government must ensure such aid does not “compromise Poland's own air defense capabilities.” Simultaneously, negotiations regarding an exchange of MiG-29 aircraft for Ukrainian drone technologies are gaining momentum, with Bulgaria expressing interest in the aircraft if an exchange is not finalized.

Despite export growth, industry experts warn that Poland’s defence sector lacks a coherent long-term strategy. The upcoming 2026–2030 Defence Industry Development Strategy is expected to address critical gaps in production capacity, modern technology, workforce skills, and dependence on foreign supply chains.